New Zealand election coalition talks will likely take weeks – as it happened

Thanks for following the blog tonight. The election has ended without a clear winner. Here are the top news lines from what will go down as one of New Zealand’s closest elections in many decades. Christopher Luxon’s National party and its right-leaning coalition partners are on the brink of a wafer-thin majority that could allow it to eke out a return to power.

The left-wing bloc, led by Labour’s Chris Hipkins, fell short of a majority. Neither Luxon or Hipkins claimed victory or conceded defeat. Both acknowledged an expected wait before a governing coalition is negotiated. A centrist newcomer, the Opportunity party, has entered parliament, polling above the 5% threshold.

They could potentially be a kingmaker in a coalition. Final results are expected on 27 November. Coalition talks will likely take weeks. Hundreds of thousands of special votes are yet to be counted and could change the shape of parliament. Saturday figures showed there could be a 130-seat parliament, with 66 seats needed for a majority.

Results suggested a coalition of National, Act and NZ First would hold 67 seats. The 67 included 42 for National, 13 for Act and 12 for NZ First. The left-bloc totalled 56 seats: Labour 35, Greens 16 and 5 for Te Pāti Māori. Opportunity is projected to gain 7 seats.

Over the coming days and weeks we will get a sense of the magnitude of Qiulae Wong and the Opportunity party’s success tonight. Opportunity are currently projected to claim seven seats in parliament. Wong has said that if she held the tiebreaker power, she was open to negotiating with either a conservative or a left-wing government and would deal first with whichever major party won the most votes.

The right-wing bloc might not need her, and Luxon has ruled out governing with Opportunity. Analysts say, however, that both major party leaders would likely answer the phone if Wong held the only path to power. You can read more about the rise of Opportunity here, in this piece from Michelle Duff.

A couple of pics of Christopher Luxon as he arrived to speak to supporters tonight. On the current count, the Greens are celebrating a best-ever result of what looks to be 16 seats in parliament. With 0.56% support, Te Pāti Māori will be stoked with its result tonight, writes Jamie Tahana.

It seems odd, but the Māori party has spent the election deliberately asking people not to give them their party vote. Instead, they asked for electorate votes only. Just a reminder, seven of the seats in New Zealand’s parliament are reserved for representatives of Māori voters – you can read more about them here.

The party’s co-leaders, Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, have comfortably won their respective seats of Waiariki and Te Tai Hauauru; Oriini Kaipara swept the Auckland seat of Tamaki Makaurau; Hana Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, who hit international stardom for her haka in parliament, has cruised across the line in Hauraki-Waikato; while Aperahama Edwards holds a narrow lead over the Greens’ Hūhana Lydon in the far North seat of Te Tai Tokerau.

That’s five seats. But with a party vote so low, they will be five overhang seats. Still, after a term that has seen plenty of in-fighting in Te Pāti Māori, there are signs of frustration in the Māori electorate, with Waititi and Ngarewa-Packer seeing significantly reduced majorities.

The Greens have fallen short of gaining their first ever Māori electorate, but across the seats party vote has risen to about 40%, making the party a significant force in Māori politics. Labour, having been punished by the Māori electorate in 2023, has improved, particularly in terms of party vote, and has claimed a new MP in Mananui Ramsden, who won the country’s largest electorate, Te Tai Tonga.

So, hundreds of thousands of special votes are going to potentially change where things stand right now. In his speech tonight, Luxon said 300,000 special votes were yet to be counted. Those votes, which will be counted and known by 27 November, typically sway left.

In the 2023 election there 600,000 special votes, and National dropped from 50 seats in the preliminary count to 48 seats. In a 130-seat parliament, in which 66 seats are needed to govern, this is where things stand with 97% of the vote counted. However, special votes are still to be counted and the lay of the land will not be clear until 27 November.

National 42, Act 13, NZ First 12 = 67 Labour 35, Greens 16, Te Pāti Māori 5 = 56 Opportunity 7 Numbers… with 97% of the vote counted: National 29.3%, Labour 29.2%, Greens 13.3%, Act 11%, NZ First 9.8%, Opportunity 6%, Te Pāti Māori 0.6%. Jamie Tahana has this hot-take on the Luxon speech: It was a tough line to tread for a speech: National is the biggest party on current results – 29.30% – but Luxon has also led the party to one of its most unpopular points, only 0.1% ahead of Labour.

Luxon has also lost some of his most senior and experienced MPs, which he conceded required “some tough phone calls”. Luxon said that because of the closeness of the result, and with special votes still to be counted, caretaker conventions will apply. “For now, I want to tell New Zealanders that well established caretaker conventions apply … The daily business of government will continue.” Caretaker convention basically means that while a new government is being formed, the incumbent government is in “caretaker” mode, which means it will carry on the normal business of governing.

Jamie Tahana notes that for Luxon to continue as prime minister, he will have to cobble together a three- or four-party coalition, from a weakened position compared to 2023. In his speech, Luxon said: “Negotiations and compromises are going to be required … A number of races are still too close to call.” Jamie Tahana has some more from the Luxon speech: Luxon called the election “too close to call”, and said “meaningful negotiations” for a new coalition government will start after the final results are known on 27 November.

“It looks like an MMP special,” he said. “It’s heartening to see that so far National is once again the largest party in parliament and we have a path to forming the next government.” Luxon concedes result unlikely tonight, saying that meaningful negotiations will begin after final results on 27 November.

Luxon arrived to a crowd of about 700 raucous supporters chanting “three more years”. He was flanked by his wife Amanda and two children, waved and grinned as he descended a stairwell flanked in blue light. A heavy music track - which could not be immediately identified through Shazam - thrummed as he walked down a long aisle, hugging supporters.

When he took the podium, Luxon conceded the election was “too close to call” but the crowd cheered as he announced National had secured the highest party count. He went on to acknowledge Labour leader Chris Hipkins, and admonished supporters who booed Quilae Wong and Opportunity, saying it was “not the kiwi way”.

Luxon is also paying tribute to those high-ranking National MPs who find themselves out of a job tonight: Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith and Gerry Brownlee. “I want to thank you … for your years of service to our party”. Luxon has called tonight’s result “an MMP special” and says “on the numbers so far, National is once again the largest party in parliament”.

It will be interesting to see what Luxon has to say. How will he frame the vote count and National’s performance? Christopher Luxon is high-fiving and hugging supporters. He’ll be speaking soon. Wherever the cards may fall tonight, National and Labour are both under 30%.

That is a sad indictment on the appeal of New Zealand’s two major parties. A couple of pics from the Viaduct Events Centre. Christopher Luxon has just arrived at the Viaduct Events Centre, in Auckland. Eva Corlett is there and we’ll have more on this soon. And this is how that count translates into a 129-seat parliament.

National 41, Act 13, NZ First 12 = 66 Labour 35, Greens 16, Te Pāti Māori 5 = 56 Opportunity 7 On the current count, 65 seats are needed to govern. That means the right-bloc (National, Act, NZ First) could govern right now, without Opportunity. However, special votes, which include those from overseas voters or people outside their electorate, will not be included in the vote count until 27 November.

Historically, special votes have favoured the left, with parties on the right losing support following the count With 94% of the vote counted: National 29.3%, Labour 29.2%, Greens 13.3%, Act 11%, NZ First 9.8%, Opportunity 6%, Te Pāti Māori 0.6%. The biggest smile of anyone here at the Labour Party tonight so far belongs to Craig Renney, the Labour party candidate who looks close to having stolen the Wellington Bays seat from incumbent and Green MP Julie Anne Genter.

The economist and former trade unionist rolled into the party with his phone in his palm amid rounds of applause and a look approaching disbelief on his face, having pulled ahead of Genter by 80 votes. “We’ve got a lot of problems, unemployment, 3000 people in the last two years who have lost their jobs — that’s the entirety of Lyall Bay,” Renney said, referring to part of his electorate.

“It’s still early, and there’s a lot of votes to come in, but what people want to see is a change of government, especially in Wellington.” As The Guardian spoke to Renney, he was constantly refreshing the official election result website. How long did he think he was going to be doing that for?

“Probably the next two days,” he said. “But the trend is optimistic.” Half an hour later, he was trailing by 62 votes. As he walked away from a television interview, still checking his phone, and buses full of Labour supporters emptied the venue, his expression reflected the way the whole room seemed to feel; like they weren’t really sure what happened, and we were all going to have to wait to find out.

As things stand, this is how parliament could look. Christopher Luxon is on the move, TV pictures show. He’s heading for the National party gathering. More soon. Tracking back to the Chris Hipkins’ speech: Labour party leader Chris Hipkins has been raucously welcomed with cheers of “Chippy, Chippy, Chippy,” at the Upper Hutt Cosmopolitan Club.

“Tonight, New Zealand has spoken,” he said, on stage. “It may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is they’ve said. Every vote matters, and every vote must now be counted.” While things were still unclear tonight, “our next parliament is going to require all of us to compromise, to work together and to find common ground,” Hipkins said.

“We all want our children to have more opportunities than we did. We want to feel secure in our jobs and our homes and in our communities. We want a country that is fair, that is confident, and that looks after people when times are tough.” Hipkins thanked his campaign team, his fiancee, Toni Grace, and the people of the Remutaka electorate.

No matter what happened, the people had spoken, he said, saying the party was “written off” three years ago. “Either way, the Labour Party is not going anywhere.” Numbers… let’s look at the numbers. With 90% of the vote counted: National 29.3%, Labour 29.1%, Greens 13.1%, Act 11%, NZ First 9.8%, Opportunity 5.9%, Te Pāti Māori 0.6%.

This topsy-turvy election has National on track for 41 seats in parliament, with a strong footing to form the next government, but some of its most senior ministers will be out of a job, notes Jamie Tahana. New Zealand’s MMP system creates a mix of electorate MPs, who represent one of 64 constituencies, and list MPs who enter parliament off a party list to make up proportionality.

National is performing poorly in the popular vote, which means their share in parliament will be made entirely of electorate MPs. They just don’t have enough support to bring in any list MPs. Nicola Willis, a list-only candidate who is the party’s deputy leader and the current finance minister, will not return as an MP.

Paul Goldsmith, the justice minister, defence minister, and minister responsible for the spy agencies, among others, is also likely to be out of parliament, on track to lose Epsom to Act’s David Seymour. Chris Bishop is in a fight for his political life in Hutt South, as he needs to win this seat to re-enter parliament.

The speaker of parliament, Gerry Brownlee, an MP since 1996 has also conceded he won’t make it back to parliament. At number 9 on his party list, he has no shot of making it back. “When you’re a list member of parliament, you take your chances on the party vote, and the party vote has not been as high for us as we would have liked,” he told The Post.

Labour’s also had a horrible election, but they’ve not won nearly enough electorates for this to be a problem for them. It is 11pm in New Zealand. In recent elections, the lay of electoral land is usually clear by now. Not tonight. Some pictures are starting to come in of Chris Hipkins’ arrival.

Chris Hipkins opened by joking that New Zealand had spoken, but that it was going to take a little longer to work out what it is that you’ve said. “If we have the privilege of forming the government after this election, when the results are finally known, we will get straight to work,” he said.

Pundits immediately noted Hipkins’ speech came across as a man who did not know how the night would end up, and that it was far from a victory speech. This is New Zealand’s tightest election in decades. With 85% of votes counted, here’s how things stand: National has pulled slightly ahead, sitting on 29.37% – 0.31% ahead of Labour.

A difference of 6,740 votes. Jamie Tahana says the collapse of the two major parties – the ‘purple’ vote – is feeding record numbers for the smaller parties, including Act, NZ First and the Greens. The newcomers, Opportunity, still look like they’ll be entering parliament for the first time, on 5.89%.

In tonight’s other tight race, the Kiwis lead Tonga 12-10 at half time in the Rugby League World Cup semifinal. Chris Hipkins is at his local Cosmopolitan Club. He’ll be speaking soon. He was getting a bit frustrated at reporters blocking his way and peppering him with questions.

Also, Opportunity now have 5.9% of the party vote, with 84% of the count done. Chris Hipkins is on the move. TV pictures show the Labour leader entering his car and heading for his party’s election night gathering. More soon. A couple more pics from the Greens election party function.

So, now you know about the overhang, this is how a 131-seat parliament is shaping up. National 43, Act 13, NZ First = 68 Labour 35, Greens 16, Te Pāti Māori 5 = 56 Opportunity 7 As it stands, the right bloc would not need Opportunity. Jamie Tahana has delivered this very handy explainer on the overhang.

Okay, let’s get down in the weeds, because it looks like the overhang is very much a factor today. The National party’s support has collapsed. It’s struggling to get above 30% of the party vote. Yet, on current results, it has a good chance of forming the next government.

When Kiwis enter those cardboard voting booths with the chunky orange felt pen, we get two votes: the party vote and electorate vote. Parliament has one chamber with 120 seats. Its 64 electorate seats are given to whoever wins those constituency races, and the rest are divided proportionately among the parties, so parliament looks like the national popular vote – made up from the party vote.

Currently, while National’s support is dipping, they look like they’ll hold on to most of their electorates. In fact, they could possibly gain a few. That would leave them with more seats than their proportion of actual support. When this happens, extra seats are added to parliament – an overhang.

This also increases what’s needed to form a coalition. So, with National’s extra seats, plus an expected overhang in several of the Māori electorates for Te Pāti Māori, there could be 130 seats in the next parliament, which means 65 seats would be needed to form a coalition.

Overhangs aren’t unusual, but it’s usually only one or two seats. Tonight, we could have as many as 11. The incumbent speaker of parliament, National’s Gerry Brownlee, a former carpentry teacher, just joked on TVNZ he might need to get back on the tools and whip up a few new desks for parliament.

Did we mention this was a close election? With 76% of the vote counted, Jamie Tahana has clocked that National’s aptly named Ryan Hamilton leads Labour’s Georgie Dansey by one vote. One. Vote. Hamilton East, which makes up half of New Zealand’s fourth largest city, is an important bellwether and has tightened over the night.

Time for numbers. With 75% of the party vote counted: National on 29.5%, Labour 29%, Greens 13.5%, Act 11.1% NZ First 9.8%, Opportunity 5.8%, Te Pāti Māori 0.6%. Two of National’s most senior MPs, Nicola Willis and Paul Goldsmith, arrived at the party’s event just after 9.30pm, where they told media they were unlikely to return to parliament.

On current numbers, National has secured more electorate seats than their party vote, meaning there will be no room for MPs who don’t win their electorate or are running as list-only MPs to enter parliament. Willis, who was finance minister, and Goldsmith, who was justice minister, appeared downcast as they reckoned with their fate.

“It is looking very unlikely that I will be returning to parliament, so that does come with some disappointment. At the same time I feel immense gratitude for the opportunity I have had to serve as minister of finance in Luxon’s government,” Willis said. When asked how she felt about several top ministers at risk of being out of a job, Willis said she was confident in the remaining team.

Goldsmith said politics was “a rough business” but he was proud of his achievements. “Ultimately, it’s the people who get to choose.” Jamie Tahana has been watching as Green party co-leader Marama Davidson addresses supporters in a central Auckland church. Davidson said the party had seen a “Green wave” of Māori support.

“It looks like about 40% of voters in the Māori seats have placed their trust in us and we do not take that lightly,” she said. That’s true. The party is second in party votes in all seven Māori electorates, trailing Labour. That could show Māori voters heeding Te Pāti Māori’s call for its supporters to not give them their party vote, just their electorate vote.

(TPM is currently at 0.57%, which it’s claiming as a success). But the Greens have also been pushing hard to boost its support among Māori, and in the past three years, has been one of the most vocal critics of a slew of Māori-related bills from the coalition government.

It’s also worrying for Labour, who once had a near monopoly in the Māori seats. They’re still leading in party votes in Māori seats, but their historic dominance has definitely waned. Big news. Finance minister Nicola Willis has conceded she won’t be back in parliament, given how poorly National is doing in the party vote.

More on this soon. And some context here. Matthew Hooton, editor of Wellington paper The Post, says there are three big winners so far tonight: Act, the Greens and Opportunity. Hooton is on Stuff’s pundit panel tonight. The Greens are also doing very well tonight.

They have 13.7% of the party vote. They got 11.6% in 2023. On current numbers and projections, they would get 17 seats in parliament: 3 electorate seats and 14 list seats. In Nelson, 35-year-old hopeful Blair Cameron has taken an early lead. Cameron is vying for the seat again, after narrowly missing out on becoming a National MP in 2023 when Labour’s incumbent Rachel Boyack held on to the seat by 26 votes.

This election, with 72% of the vote counted, he leads by 878 votes. At this time of the night, a margin of less than 1000 is still considered to be a tight race. In another election race picked as one to watch, just up the coast from Wellington in Kāpiti, young climate activist Sophie Handford is trailing National party incumbent Tim Costley.

With half of that vote counted, he leads by 1,319. NZ First plays … an Aussie classic? Jamie Tahana has spotted that John Farnham’s You’re The Voice was blasting at the Duke of Marlborough pub in the historic settlement of Russell for the arrival of Winston Peters, the leader of the nationalist NZ First party.

His party currently sits at 9.6% of the vote, a certain return to parliament with 11 seats. “A lot of people are getting carried away right now about what the outcome means,” he said. “It would be wise if they held their counsel a bit longer.” “As with all good decision-making, you first need to know all the facts.” He said it was the most difficult campaign of his extensive political career (he first entered parliament in 1979).

So, how does the current count translate into parliament seats? National 42, Act 13, NZ First 12 = 67 Labour 35, Greens 17, Te Pāti Māori = 57 Opportunity 7 In this projected 131-seat parliament, 66 seats are needed to win power. The number of seats keeps jumping around because of the overhang issue.

Read more about that here. More numbers, 52% of the vote counted. It’s so close. Labour 29.5%, National 29.4%, Greens 13.8%, Act 10.8%, NZ First 9.6%, Opportunity 5.6%, Te Pāti Māori 0.6%. New Zealand First are tracking well ahead of their 2023 result. With 52% of the party vote counted, NZ First is on 9.6%, which would give them 11 seats in parliament.

In 2023 they polled just over 6%. As you know, Michelle Duff is in Upper Hutt tonight, with the Labour faithful at the local Cosmopolitan Club; that’s in Chris Hipkins’ electorate. Michelle has this important update on the food and vibe: The generally buoyant atmosphere is not reflected in the food, which is majority fried and beige.

“There’s no fruit,” said one punter, before standing corrected; there was, in fact, a lemon wedge. Guests are otherwise snacking on chicken tenders and sausage rolls, listening to a playlist of New Zealand reggae hits from the 90s, and biting their nails. Labour party candidate Barbara Edmonds has arrived at the Labour party event, hot off a campaign that has seen her gain double the votes of her closest National party contender in Kenepuru, a Wellington electorate.

Surrounded by family, she said she was thrilled to have won her electorate and increased voter turnout, and “nervously excited” about the numbers for her party so far. She wanted to see Labour with a count in the 30s. “My hopes are high, but it’s still early days.” Will Christopher Luxon call Qiulae Wong?

Senior government minister Mark Mitchell has just offered a pretty strong hint that National has softened its stance on working with the Opportunity party. Christopher Luxon has repeatedly ruled out working with Opportunity. But Mitchell just told TV3 that “at the end of the day it’s an MMP environment and the voters decide”.

Mitchell, one of National’s most senior ministers, added it was “too early to say” if working with the new party was possible. No one really believed Luxon wouldn’t call Qiulae Wong if he needed her to form a government. With National at 29.41% of the party vote, that might be starting to play out.

A bit of a surprisingly close race in the Northland city of Whangārei, normally a safe blue seat, notes Jamie Tahana. National’s Lloyd Budd is just 206 votes ahead of Labour’s Gary Payinda, with 34% of votes counted. The seat has always been a National seat, except for a brief switch for three years in the Jacinda Ardern-led red wave of 2020.

Jamie Tahana has this on David Seymour from a little earlier, after the leader of the libertarian Act party addressed his faithful at Auckland’s Viaduct Harbour. Flanked by his MPs, he told a cheering crowd that it’s unlikely we’ll know who will form the next government tonight.

“This election has a few machinations, it’s fair to say the final result may not be known tonight and it may not be known until the final count is released in two Fridays time.” Seymour looks set to win his Epsom electorate, currently 900 votes ahead of National’s Paul Goldsmith – a senior government minister who probably won’t make parliament if he doesn’t win the electorate.

But in neighbouring Tāmaki, Act looks set to lose that electorate. A number of pundits are noting how well Act have done so far tonight, currently on 10.6%. In 2023, Act landed 8.6% of the vote. So, what does that mean for seats in parliament? National 42, Act 13, NZ First 11 = 66 Labour 36, Greens 17, Te Pāti Māori 5 = 58 Opportunity 7 More numbers, folks!

With 35% of the vote counted: Labour just ahead with 29.9%, National 29.4%, Greens 14.1%, Act 10.5%, NZ First 9.4%, Opportunity 5.4%, Te Pāti Māori 0.6%. National MP Mark Mitchell, who has spent the past term as minister for a swathe of portfolios including police, corrections and emergency management, has arrived at the Auckland venue.

Speaking to a media scrum Mitchell said the early results for National were good, saying incumbent governments around the world were doing it tough. When asked how he felt about the possibility of some of his senior colleagues, including Nicola Willis and Paul Goldsmith, not making it back to parliament, Mitchell said he hoped they would return.

“They have been outstanding ministers ... It’s still too early to tell.” Mitchell seemed more open to the prospect of working with Opportunity if it becomes kingmaker, saying the shape of the government is decided by New Zealand. This is a departure from Luxon’s stance - he has repeatedly ruled out working with them.

More on that Qiulae Wong speech now: “It is looking very likely that the Opportunity party is going to make history tonight.” Wong added: “You have voted to change New Zealand politics for good.” Jamie Tahana says Wong thanked her candidates for a positive and determined campaign, “To many in this room, this result has been a long time coming,” she said, acknowledging volunteers for the work done since the party’s inception a decade ago.

Overseas voters could play an interesting role this election. Offshore enrolments skyrocketed 60% compared with 2023 – the highest number the electoral commission has seen. Tens of thousands of New Zealanders left the country over the past three years, amid high costs and high unemployment.

Analysts believe they may be poised to vent their grievances against the coalition government. The results of votes won’t be known until 27 November. Read more: Qiulae Wong looks happy tonight. Swarmed by reporters as she enters her party’s HQ at Auckland’s Eden Park, the leader of Opportunity, Qiulae Wong, said she was confident.

“We are stoked, it’s looking very promising for us,” she said. “Let’s just see how the rest of the votes fall.” Currently at 5.7%, the centrist party could pass the threshold needed to enter parliament, an historic first. Since New Zealand adopted MMP in 1996, no new party has been able to meet that threshold – all the minor parties have been born from MPs or groups splintering from other major parties.

She’s about to give a speech to supporters, so we’ll have that for you. More numbers. This is how the seats in parliament add up with 29% of the vote counted. Based on this, Opportunity would be kingmaker. But, still a long way to go. National 41, Act 13, NZ First 11 = 65 seats Labour 36, Greens 17, Te Pāti Māori 5 = 58 seats Opportunity 7 There are 130 seats in parliament with the overhang on these numbers.

For more on the overhang issue, read here. Something of a New Zealand election tradition is that the families of the contenders for prime minister take food to the journalists waiting outside their houses. This year, Labour leader Chris Hipkins’ partner Toni Grace catered with homemade mince pies, accompanied by pikelets with jam and cream.

Christopher Luxon’s wife Amanda brought the throngs of media strawberries, a few party pies, and a few bottles of mineral water. “The whole food groups,” she said on TVNZ. Cheers explode at the Labour party event as Labour draws neck and neck with National in party votes for the first time tonight.

Friends Jamie Hoare and Eddie Clark are allowing themselves a ray of hope. “There is a reason for it,” says Hoare, a local teacher, citing Brazil’s election and the “blue-nado,” in the US as examples. “We need a stable government, we need a government that cares about pay equity.” Elsewhere, Labour candidates are locked in neck and neck races, with tensions high for those at the Labour party event watching Hutt South.

With more than 20% of the vote counted, the mood is high as Labour’s Ginny Anderson edges ahead of the incumbent, National MP Chris Bishop, by just a handful of ballots. Green MP Julie-Anne Genter is just holding off Labour challenger Craig Renney in Wellington North, while Labour’s Kieran McAnulty is winning against National’s Mike Butterick in Wairarapa.

Elsewhere in Wellington, Labour party MP Ayesha Verrall was hoping to win Wellington North off the incumbent Green MP Tamatha Paul, but early votes suggest this won’t be the case. Paul is leading comfortably, at almost twice Verrall’s count in an electorate where Green is also leading the party vote.

How close? 0.03%, Jamie Tahana writes. With a quarter of votes counted, just 0.03% separates Labour and National in what is proving a knife-edge election. Labour has just pushed ahead of National in party votes, 29.72 to 29.69 but looking at electorates, National would still have more seats in parliament.

At 5.38%, the newcomer Opportunity party would just squeak into parliament. With plenty more to come – including large urban booths, and remote booths – there could still be some drastic changes. Act leader David Seymour is just arriving at Act’s election party in Auckland’s CBD, to meet supporters.

Act are currently on 10.6% of the party vote. There may be 200-300 people at National’s event in Auckland, but the mood is muted, with long stretches of near-silence as the results roll in. National may scoop up more seats than Labour via an overhang – enough to nudge the coalition back into power.

But the results are still precarious. A higher number of National-leaning seats have been counted early, with some Labour strongholds still to come through. Meanwhile, a number of National’s high profile MPs are at risk of not making it back into parliament on the list.

No one here is in celebration mode yet with the vote so tight. More numbers for you, now it’s 25% of the vote counted and … Labour and National are tied! Labour 29.7%, National 29.7%, Greens 13.8%, Act 10.6%, NZ First 9.5%, Opportunity 5.4%, Te Pāti Māori 0.5%.

Jamie Tahana has this: Keep an eye on the inner Auckland suburb of Mt Albert. It’s been held by two Labour prime ministers, Helen Clark and Jacinda Ardern, but Labour’s Helen White won it by only 20 votes in 2023. This year, the Greens have been pushing hard as has Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong.

That had Labour worried about a potential vote split allowing National’s Melissa Lee to come through the middle and claim the seat. But so far, with 13% counted, White is ahead of Lee by 465 votes. Who is the Opportunity Party, this year’s potential kingmaker?

Opinion polls in the lead up the election showed the Opportunity party, led by businesswoman Qiulae Wong, 38, clearing the 5% threshold to become kingmaker. The centrist minor party, whose policies include a land tax and a $370 a week universal basic income, says it is looking to “market-driven solutions” while being committed to a low-emission future and evidence-based policy.

Opportunity will negotiate first with the party that secures the highest number of votes. However, Luxon has ruled out working with Opportunity numerous times, saying its proposed land tax runs contrary to National’s “no new taxes” pledge. The media outlet Stuff, which is hosting a panel of pundits, has just said it is looking like Opportunity could hold the balance of power by the end of the night, given how things are currently trending.

Jamie Tahana has this update from the electoral commission. 1.9 million people voted early, which is 50.4% of all enrolled voters. That’s far higher than the advance voting rate in 2023, but just short of 2020 – where the voting period was extended because of the Covid pandemic.

For anyone tuning in who needs a refresher on the MMP electoral system, here goes: MMP means voters are asked to vote twice – once for their preferred party and the second time for an electorate MP. There is a single chamber of parliament which generally has 120 MPs.

This is the overhang issue which I think we’re going to be talking about tonight as results come in. Under ‌MMP it ‌is very uncommon for a single party to form a government. If there is no majority winner, the major parties will start negotiations after ‌the election and can either form a coalition or confidence-and-supply agreements with minor parties.

The party with the largest number of votes does not necessarily win, and negotiations can take days or weeks. Some senior National heavy hitters will, remarkably, be out of a job if National’s party vote goes badly tonight. Those most at risk include: Nicola Willis (finance minister), Chris Bishop (like Willis, is tipped as a potential future leader of the party), Paul Goldsmith (justice minister) and Gerry Brownlee (speaker of the house).

Some background: All the pre-election polls looked bad for any National MP who was relying on the list vote to return them to parliament; such as Willis and Brownlee, who are list-only candidates. Goldsmith (Epsom) and Bishop (Hutt South) are both engaged in tense, marginal electorate battles.

If either loses, they are then reliant on winning via the list. We’ll be watching all this closely. More numbers: this time seats in the house with 20% of the vote counted: National 42, Act 13, NZ First 12 = 67 seats Labour 35, Greens, 16, Te Pāti Māori 5 = 56 seats Opportunity 7 Currently, it is projected there would be 130 seats in the house.

For an explanation on this, refer to our overhang post from earlier. Some of the Labour party candidates are locked in neck and neck races, with tensions high for those at the Labour party event watching the candidates in Hutt South. With more than 20% of the vote counted, Labour’s Ginny Anderson has edged just ahead of the incumbent, National MP Chris Bishop, by just a handful of ballots.

Green MP Julie-Anne Genter is just holding off Labour challenger Craig Renney in Wellington North, while Labour’s Kieran McAnulty is winning against National’s Mike Butterick in Wairarapa. Elsewhere in Wellington, Labour party MP Ayesha Verrall was hoping to win Wellington North off the incumbent Green MP Tamatha Paul, but early votes suggest this won’t be the case.

Paul is leading comfortably, at almost twice Verrall’s count in an electorate where Green is also leading the party vote. Couple of pics here from Jamie Tahana down at Backbenchers. Bound to be a few of you who know the inside of this place. Another key feature of this election has been the possibility of an overhang - where a party wins more electorates than its share of the party vote.

If that occurs, more seats will be added to parliament to make up the difference and could dictate which coalition can form a government. Te Pāti Māori (the Māori party) has been calling on supporters to engineer an overhang for its party - by voting for its candidates in the Māori seats, and not giving them a party vote.

This could benefit the left bloc. Meanwhile, if National holds on to a good portion of its seats but its party vote falls short, that will give the party an edge to form a government but could see some of its most prominent MPs out of parliament. Some more numbers, with 17% of the vote counted.

National are on 30.5%, Labour 29%, the Greens 13%, Act 11.1%, NZ First 9.8%, Opportunity 5.4% and Te Pāti Māori 0.5%. We’re going to need to start discussing the prospect of overhang seats, as it is heading towards that scenario. We’ll have a post on this soon.

The race between Act leader David Seymour and National’s Paul Goldsmith in the Epsom seat is narrow – a matter of a few dozen votes. National supporters chanted “Goldsmith, Goldsmith”, when the results appeared on two giant screens, flanking the podium, at the Viaduct Events Centre.

Elsewhere in the Upper Hutt Cosmopolitan Club, punters were ordering crate bottles of local beer Tui and listening to a band kick up a rendition of Tennessee Whiskey. For Hutt locals, the Cossie Club is a social hub; karaoke on Thursdays, Bingo on Sundays, and a jug of lager for $14 during happy hour.

While everyone spoken to by The Guardian voted for Hipkins in the Remutaka electorate – “he’s a local boy,” – party votes were otherwise split between Labour, the Opportunity party, and NZ First. “I’ve always voted Labour, Chris knows that,” said Gladys Cooney, 96.

“I haven’t heard anything from them this election, I don’t think anyone has gone deep enough.” The cost of living was appalling, she said. “Everything you touch has gone up.” Fellow local Paul O’Riley also voted for Hipkins, but party voted NZ First. “I worked for 50 years in this country as a truck driver, Winston [Peters] does the most for us.” Seven of the seats in New Zealand’s 120-seat parliament are Māori electorates.

Voters of Māori descent can choose to vote on the Māori roll – allowing them to vote for these seats – or the general roll. More than half of Māori voters are on the Māori roll. They still get two votes; one for the electorate, and one for their preferred political party.

Last election, Te Pāti Māori won six of the seven seats. But internal turmoil has plagued the party since. Tonight, eyes will be on Te Tai Tokerau – covering the geographical area from New Zealand’s most northern point in Cape Reinga to West Auckland – where the Green’s candidate Hūhana Lyndon could help the party nab their first Māori seat.

Latest polls put her leading the race, followed by Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime and Te Pāti Māori candidate Aperahama Edwards. Te Pāti Māori remain ahead in most other electorates, aside from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti and Te Tai Tonga (the biggest electorate, covering the entirety of the South Island and Stewart Island) where Labour candidates lead polling.

In an election night that has come down to Chris vs Chris, it’s important to know the difference. Christopher Luxon, 56, the incumbent, leader of the National party and PM since 2023, is the former chief executive of the country’s national airline, Air New Zealand, and previously worked a slew of corporate jobs worldwide.

He entered parliament in 2020, winning the Auckland electorate of Botany. A father-of-two, he is Christian but doesn’t discuss his faith, and has emphasised his business credentials — in 2023, his party was elected on its economic pledges. Chris Hipkins, 48, the career politician who leads the center-left Labour party, is having a second crack at being PM tonight.

Following the resignation of Jacinda Ardern in January 2023, Hipkins, also a father of two, took the reins for nine months ahead of that election, which his party lost. He’s held the Remutaka electorate in parliament since 2008. Some voters still associate him with Covid-19 and strict lockdown measures, while others connect with his pledges for better healthcare and improved cost of living.

Cheers from a rowdy group of National supporters after early results show Chris Bishop may hold on to his Hutt South electorate. National party faithful are starting to trickle into its event at the cavernous Viaduct Event Centre on Auckland’s waterfront. The room is awash in blue light.

People are grabbing drinks and milling around. The reaction is flicking between nervousness and excitement as the first numbers show the race is - as predicted - neck and neck. As the first results of the night flashed up onto the big screen, Labour party volunteer Jasmine, 22, who works in the public service and didn’t want to use her last name, stopped talking mid-sentence.

A hush fell over the room as the first poll results show the main parties neck and neck . “That’s close,” she said, exhaling. “It’s great that Opportunity is over 5%, I’m happy about that. It’s just overwhelming; this is years of work, and that’s real numbers.” She’s been working for the party since she was 16.

Cheers are going up in the room as electorate results begin to come in. About 200 party supporters are expected here tonight. Another update here with 8% of the vote counted. National on 31.2%, Labour 28.4%, the Greens 12.9%, Act 11.2%, NZ First 9.6%, Opportunity 5.7% and Te Pāti Māori 0.4%.

On these numbers, we would have a right bloc coalition back in power. Long way to go. Jamie Tahana has this from the Backbencher pub in Wellington: At the Backbencher, a politics and puppet themed pub across the road from the Beehive, people are splitting their attention between the election coverage, the football, the cricket, and tonight’s rugby league.

Many people spoken to by the Guardian weren’t prepared to go bold with a prediction, nervous about the likely tight result. One man, Joel, told the Guardian Opportunity making parliament would “shake things up.” Also here is NZ First local candidate and former Wellington mayor Andy Foster, and his team.

Foster said he was nervous. “Let’s get through tonight, but I’m feeling confident,” he told the Guardian. “The country needs NZ First and we still have a lot to do,” he said. Some colour from voting stations around the country today. The Labour party election night event has kicked off in the Upper Hutt Cosmopolitan Club, a popular suburban venue in the middle of Labour party leader Chris Hipkins’ Remutaka electorate, which he’s held since 2008.

As Te Awa Kairangi (the Hutt River) flows by a few sleepy streets away, the Cossie Club has begun to fill with party supporters and volunteers, many who are travelling to this small city in the Wellington region by bus. At first stride into this red-hued room, festooned with fairy lights and balloons, it’s difficult to know if you’ve walked into a political event or a 21st party.

Politicians expected here tonight include Ginny Anderson, Labour’s candidate for the Hutt South electorate; Barbara Edmonds, standing for Mana; and Ayesha Verrall, who is contesting Wellington North against incumbent Green party MP Tamatha Paul. Hipkins (whose nickname is Chippy) said his family tradition is fish and chips on election night as the votes are counted, so he is expected here later.

Seats to watch Hutt South, Nelson, Banks Peninsula, Wigram, Whanganui and Kāpiti were either tight races between National and Labour last time around, or could change hands after boundaries were re-drawn. Wairarapa, West Coast-Tasman and Hamilton East are historically National strongholds.

If they flip red, that could be an early signal for good overall outcome for Labour. The Tāmaki electorate has traditionally been held by National but was taken by the libertarian Act party in 2023. This year, the race between those parties’ candidates and newcomer Labour candidate Max Harris is tight – a Harris win would be a surprise upset for the right.

Meanwhile, Green candidate Kahurangi Carter is vying to claim Christchurch Central. If Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick keeps Auckland Central and Tamatha Paul nabs Wellington North, New Zealand’s three largest city centre electorates will be represented by the Green party.

Maungakiekie could also be an indicator for the final results. Over the past two elections, the Maungakiekie electorate has proven to be an “extraordinary” bellwether seat, accurately reflecting the mood of the nation. If six weeks of campaigning has left you cold, then sit back as Matilda Boseley spills the tea on the two Chrises, election vibes and the Luxon-Opportunity question.

Seeing some numbers. So with just 1% of the vote counted, National are on 31%, Labour 29.8% and Opportunity party 5.7%, so they are above the threshold. There is obviously a long, long way to go tonight. The Greens are on 12.2%, Act 11% and New Zealand First 9.4%.

Te Pāti Māori are on 0.3%. So, what’s at stake for Luxon and National tonight? A lot. The party is facing the dire possibility of being the first one-term National-led government since it was founded in 1936. Remember, National has never led for less than three terms, ever.

So this is a huge night for Luxon’s legacy and the National party, both past and present. Tonight, our New Zealand correspondent Eva Corlett is posted at National party’s main gathering at Viaduct Events Centre, in Auckland, awaiting the arrival of Christopher Luxon.

In Upper Hutt, north of Wellington, we’ll have updates from Michelle Duff who is mingling alongside the Labour faithful at the local Cosmopolitan Club. That’s happening in Chris Hipkins’ electorate, and he’ll show up there once the lay of the electoral land becomes clear.

In Wellington, Jamie Tahana is at the Backbenchers pub, which is a brief stroll from New Zealand’s Beehive. He’ll be checking the mood with keen voters who have pulled up a pew and are ready to watch the results start coming in. Six weeks of campaigning, politicking and debates is done.

New Zealand has voted and over the next few hours we’ll find out the results of what has been cast as one of the tightest elections in recent memory. For weeks, the polls have shown no clear path to government for any potential coalition, left or right. Seemingly unimpressed by National and Labour, polls have tracked voters turning to the smaller parties, such as the centrist Opportunity party.

Tonight could see Opportunity potentially end up as kingmaker, unless that pre-election support and hype has failed to translate into votes. Stay with us as we learn the answer to that big question and others, as we keep you across the counts and results as they come in.

It’s going to be an exciting night!